Happy Holiday’s friends! We are rapidly approaching the end of the year, and my window for prediction (approximately the end of 2020) has become pretty darn narrow. Which means that all I really have left to do is cleanup some outstanding bets and we can call this one a success.
Given that, I’m going to be taking the next week off. Partially, I’m going to go through the last two hundred something posts and make sure I haven’t missed any results, but mostly I’m going to enjoy a bit of time off.
Predictions and Prescriptions won’t be over in 2021…
I’m of two minds on $WISH, one of the most recent IPOs to grace the markets.
While the purveyor of low priced imported goods has managed to increase its net losses from $136M (2019) to $176M (2020) and its business is heavily reliant on a Chinese import market that faces non-zero regulatory risk, it has two things going for it that make it at least slightly more attractive than rival IPOs.
The first is that it tanked on its opening day, closing at $22.05, well below its $24 opening price. I like this because it implies (at least partially) that…
Initial Prediction: $TAN will be trading above $73 by the end of trading on December 15th.
Looks like we’re even more into Clean Tech than I expected!
I predicted that $TAN would be trading above $73 by the end of December 15th, and that is exactly what happened. At the end of trading, $TAN was priced at just under $93 ($92.98)
Even I’m a little surprised at how quickly Solar priced in the Biden bump, and while I think there is still room to grow, I wouldn’t be too surprised if we saw some substantial volatility in the interim.
Initial Prediction: The Dow will be trading above 29,200 by the end of trading on December 15th.
I thought the Dow would be trading above 29,200 by the end of the 15th, and that is exactly what happened — at the end of trading yesterday the Dow was trading at 30,199.31.
Not a huge amount to add here that I haven’t spoken about before:
Initial Prediction: $XLE will be trading below 30 by the end of trading on December 15th.
I’m calling this one a little early because the odds of something dramatically changing the results are extraordinarily low.
I was a little too bearish on Energy.
I said that by the end of today, $XLE would be trading below $30; as of the time of this post, it’s actually trading at $40.63.
What happened? The vaccine did.
There is a LOT wrong with the energy industry right now, but the biggest headwind (other than supply glut) has been the massive amount of uncertainty…
Initial Prediction: CD Projekt Red will be trading above $27.50 by the end of December 21st
I think I was wrong about CD Projekt Red.
No, I don’t think they’ll lose money on Cyberpunk 2077, the game has already made back development and marketing costs in pre-orders.
No, I don’t believe it will ultimately be seen as a failure, despite the incredible number of bugs being reported, and the skepticism endemic in early reviews, the game is still holding onto a 90% Metacritic Score (PC), and will likely be remembered as an ambitious but flawed product.
What I was wrong…
One more stock pick to close out the week, this one related to the series of massive IPOs currently making their way through the markets.
C3.ai, DoorDash, and AirBnb all went public this week, and the only one I thought was worth buying at open was…
Why? It had less to do with C3.ai (which is a fine company) and more to do with the latter two.
While AirBnB is a great company that I believe will do really well in the future, I have a hard time believing that it should be opening at a $100B valuation…
Another pick for you today.
I mentioned FireEye yesterday, and while it’s not a company I’ve followed closely, as I’ve dug in, I’ve become more interested. Their revenue’s rose 6% YoY in Q3, and their annualized recurring revenue hit a record.
More importantly, I’m convinced that digital security is going to be increasingly critical over the next few years as more companies move to the cloud.
FireEye clearly has some problems, the recent hack not least among them, but unlike Crowdstrike which has soared 257% YTD, FireEye is actually trading down nearly 18%.
After the recent gut punch, there is…
For the first six years, he did well, turning a few thousand dollars into a nest egg worth more than $150,000. But he gradually grew impatient with the slow pace of the returns he was getting and decided to try day trading.
“I like risk. I like to just know I have an opportunity that’s potentially there. So even like losing is still a high. Winning’s a high,” he says.
I came upon this story while ambling through my news feed this morning.
If you’ve been trading for any period of time, I’m sure you can relate.
I consider myself…